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Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Non-Chocolate Confectionery: Incl Impact of Covid-19 -US market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

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While non-chocolate confectionery sales growth outpaces other snack categories, year-over-year gains are modest at best. Flavor and format innovation in the chewy and seasonal segments keep the category afloat. Household penetration has dipped, driven by flight in the hard candy segment. The category should brace for future dips coming from consumer health goals and declining birthrates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers will turn to candy for pleasure and comfort, but their patronage of popular retail channels will be stunted by stay-at-home orders. Strong seasonal players will need to get creative in marketing efforts to make up for changing celebratory behavior.

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Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Beth Bloom, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Household penetration of non-chocolate confectionery has dipped,with consumers citing a desire for sugar and calorie reduction as leading factors driving reduced consumption. COVID-19 should provide a buffer against sales stagnation, as uncertain times benefit categories that provide familiarity and affordable pleasure. However, a longer view needs to be taken, to mitigate the damage from the declining rate of households with children. Category players need to reclaim the connection with fun, even as they nurture acceptance among adults through permissible indulgence Beth Bloom
Associate Director – Food & Drink

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Definition
  2. Executive Summary

    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Top takeaways
      • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on non-chocolate confectionery, June 2020
    • The issues
    • Desire for sugar reduction is driving category flight
      • Figure 3: Reasons for eating less non-chocolate confectionery in the past year, March 2020
    • Decline in numbers of households with children portend sour future
      • Figure 4: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
    • Non-chocolate confectionery needs a more defined lane
    • The opportunities
    • Category can move beyond basic fruit flavors to capture attention
      • Figure 5: Reasons for eating more non-chocolate confectionery in the past year, March 2020
    • Format innovation is helping some players grow
    • “Other” non-chocolate confectionery can boost snack cred, satisfaction
      • Figure 6: Non-chocolate confectionery comparison, March 2020
  3. Impact of COVID-19 on Non-Chocolate Confectionery

    • What you need to know
      • Figure 7: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on non-chocolate confectionery, June 2020
    • Opportunities and Threats
    • COVID-19 will stem near-term category flight
      • Figure 8: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase, February 2018 and March 2020
      • Figure 9: Snack motivations, November 2018
      • Figure 10: Perception of food/drink brands, February 2019
    • Expand candy purchase from in-line to online
      • Figure 11: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, May 28, 2020-June 4, 2020
    • Message to the current gatekeepers: parents
      • Figure 12: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
    • Candy is not going to become a health food, but health-focused flavor/ingredient innovation can make strides
    • Dial up the full candy experience
    • Impact of COVID-19 on the non-chocolate confectionery market
    • Category will be kept afloat slightly longer due to COVID-19
      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-25
    • How the COVID-19 crisis will affect non-chocolate confectionery’s key consumer segments
    • Young consumer base will require value focus; don’t underestimate the power of flavor innovation
    • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the non-chocolate confectionery industry
    • Category has proven to be recession-proof, premium brands will struggle
      • Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of non-chocolate confectionery, 2006-10
    • Retail channels that offer value positioning will outpace the rest
      • Figure 15: Year-over-year growth of total U.S. retail sales of non-chocolate confectionery, by select channels, 2006-10
    • Health scrutiny may magnify the nonessential nature of confectionery
    • COVID-19: US context
  4. The Market – What You Need to Know

    • Moderate sales gains continue, helped along by COVID-19
    • Chewy and seasonal segments continue to drive growth
    • Non-chocolate confectionery must take advantage of its strengths
    • Category needs to grow appeal among adults, sugar reduction is a start
  5. Market Size and Forecast

    • Non-chocolate confectionery sees moderate sales gains
      • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
  6. Market Breakdown

    • Chewy and seasonal segments continue to post gains
    • Strong seasonal growth will slow due to COVID-19
    • Hard (candy) knocks continue, but mask-wearing could grow need for sucking candy
    • Licorice and “other” non-chocolate confectionery segments could be a BFY test case
      • Figure 19: Segment share of total US retail sales of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
      • Figure 20: Total US retail sales of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Seasonal offerings can nurture pleasure, connection and normalcy
  7. Market Perspective

    • Non-chocolate confectionery needs a more defined lane
    • Reclaiming the fun
    • Moving from bad for you to better for you
      • Figure 21: Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
  8. Market Factors

    • Sugar reduction is a primary consumer focus
      • Figure 22: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
      • Figure 23: Sugar in non-chocolate confectionery launches, by segment, 2018-20*
    • Decline in numbers of households with children portend sour future
      • Figure 24: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
  9. Key Players – What You Need to Know

    • Four companies control half of category sales at MULO
    • Format innovation is helping some players grow
    • Category can move beyond basic fruit flavors to capture attention
    • Licorice offers some of the strongest health profiles in the category
  10. Company and Brand Sales of Non-Chocolate Confectionery

    • Four companies control half of category sales at MULO
    • Mars maintains its lead, with Ferrara hot on its heels
    • Just Born and Haribo see double-digit growth
    • Smaller players are on the right track, but the track may be disrupted
    • Private label should see a pandemic bump, but taking hold longer term still in question
    • Sales of non-chocolate confectionery by company
      • Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of non-chocolate confectionery, by share, 52 weeks ending February 19, 2020
      • Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of non-chocolate confectionery, by share, 52 weeks ending February 19, 2020
  11. What’s Working

    • Twists on the familiar among trustworthy brands lead purchase intent
      • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of hard candy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
    • All leaders see seasonal growth at MULO
      • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of seasonal candy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
    • Haribo and Just Born see strong MULO sales growth of chewy candy
      • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of chewy candy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
    • Licorice represents a growth opportunity
      • Figure 30: Leading claims among non-chocolate confectionery launches, by segment, 2018-20*
      • Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of licorice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
  12. What’s Struggling

    • Category largely limited to fruit flavors
      • Figure 32: Leading flavors among non-chocolate confectionery launches, by segment, 2018-20*
      • Figure 33: Percent share growth of fastest growing flavors among non-chocolate confectionery launches, by segment, 2018-20*
    • “Other” non-chocolate confectionery field is wide, chance for BFY positioning
      • Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of other non-chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
  13. What to Watch

    • Could SmartSweets have cracked the reduced sugar code?
    • Texture twist: Mallow movers
    • Do-goodism to wash away the candy guilt
  14. The Consumer – What You Need to Know

    • Hard candy loses out to chewy options as household penetration slips
    • Increased consumption relies on increased snacking, better motivation needed
    • Sugar reduction is driving category flight
    • Strong brand heritage drives interest in well-known brands
    • Mass gains on supermarkets, brands shouldn’t rely on impulse
  15. Non-chocolate Confectionery Consumption

    • Hard candy loses out to chewy options as household penetration slips
      • Figure 35: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase, February 2018 and March 2020
    • Parental status drives candy purchase, but appealing to non-parents key
      • Figure 36: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase, by parental status, March 2020
      • Figure 37: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase, by purchase for child, March 2020
  16. Change in Non-Chocolate Confectionery Consumption

    • Volume of candy consumed by category participants has remained status quo
      • Figure 38: Change in non-chocolate confectionery consumption, March 2020
    • Increase in consumption relies on increase in snacking, better motivation needed
      • Figure 39: Reasons for eating more non-chocolate confectionery in the past year, March 2020
    • Sugar reduction is driving category flight
      • Figure 40: Reasons for eating less non-chocolate confectionery in the past year, March 2020
  17. Non-chocolate Confectionery Type Purchased

    • Seasonal
    • No holiday stands out from the pack
      • Figure 41: Non-chocolate confectionery type purchased – seasonal, March 2020
    • Meet the needs of parents to become the candy of choice
      • Figure 42: Non-chocolate confectionery type purchased – seasonal, by parental status, March 2020
    • Features
    • More than a quarter of candy buyers choose store brands
      • Figure 43: Non-chocolate confectionery type purchased – Features, March 2020
    • Only a third of parents purchased options aimed at kids
      • Figure 44: Non-chocolate confectionery type purchased – Features, by parental status, March 2020
    • Health
    • A quarter of candy buyers purchase sugar-reduced options
      • Figure 45: Non-chocolate confectionery type purchased – Health, March 2020
    • Forward looking brands should consider vegan formulations
      • Figure 46: Non-chocolate confectionery type purchased – Health, by age, March 2020
  18. Non-chocolate Confectionery Purchase Factors

    • Strong legacy drives interest in well-known brands, grip loosening
    • Second-tier drivers (flavor variety and health) have led increase in consumption
    • Interest in third-tier specialty offerings presents opportunity for differentiation
      • Figure 47: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase factors, March 2020
    • Flavor innovation is key for young adults
      • Figure 48: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by age, March 2020
    • Price, natural important to those shopping for kids
      • Figure 49: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by purchase for a child, March 2020
    • Well-known brands can find success in improving health positioning
      • Figure 50: TURF analysis – purchase factors, March 2020
      • Figure 51: TURF analysis – purchase factors, March 2020
  19. Non-chocolate Confectionery Purchase Location

    • Mass gains on supermarkets, brands shouldn’t rely on impulse
      • Figure 52: Non-chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2018 and March 2020
  20. Non-chocolate Confectionery Comparison

    • Struggling segments can give nostalgia a try
    • Gummy candy will need to push past kid focus to remain relevant
    • “Other” non-chocolate confectionery can boost snack cred, satisfaction
      • Figure 53: Correspondence analysis – symmetrical map – non-chocolate confectionery comparison, March 2020
      • Figure 54: Non-chocolate confectionery comparison, March 2020
  21. Sweetener Statements

    • Avoidance is preferred over fussing with sugar
      • Figure 55: Sweetener statements – sugar control, March 2020
      • Figure 56: Sweetener statements – texture and natural, March 2020
    • Even younger consumers see need for sugar control
      • Figure 57: Sweetener statements – sugar control, by age, March 2020
      • Figure 58: Sweetener statements – texture and natural, by purchase for child, March 2020
  22. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Consumer survey data
    • TURF analysis methodology
    • Correspondence analysis methodology
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
  23. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of chewy candy, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of chewy candy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal candy, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal candy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of hard candy, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of hard candy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of licorice, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of licorice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of seasonal candy, by holiday, at current prices, 2015-20
  24. Appendix – Retail Channels

      • Figure 70: US supermarket sales of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 71: US drugstore sales of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 72: US convenience store sales of non-chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 73: US sales of non-chocolate confectionery through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
  25. Appendix – Key Players

      • Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of non-chocolate confectionery, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020

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