Description

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Oil Change Retail: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – US market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

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What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

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Oil changes are like new tires; a personal vehicle won’t last very long without them. While COVID-19 has threatened many facets of the auto industry, oil changes are one of the few areas that will remain largely unaffected. Consumers might delay their next oil change because they aren’t putting as many miles on their vehicle, but once normal driving habits resume, so will routine oil changes.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Hannah Keshishian, a leading analyst in the Automotive sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

As US consumers continue to grapple with the affects felt by COVID-19, the oil change industry watches as it remains largely unaffected – and even insulated from the global pandemic. Regardless of vehicle cost, size, type or towing capacity (save for electric vehicles) consumers cannot avoid getting their vehicle’s oil changed unless they want to face costly repairs Hannah Keshishian
Automotive Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

          • Impact of COVID-19 on oil change retail
            • Figure 1: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on oil change retail, June 2020
          • What oil change retailers need to know
            • DIY auto care is a threat, but only a small one
              • Where oil change retailers can succeed
                • Embrace technology and push for more oil changes scheduled online
                  • What it means
                  • Impact of COVID-19 on Oil Change Retail

                      • Figure 2: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on oil change retail, June 2020
                    • Opportunities and Threats
                      • Oil change retailers can offer vehicle “disinfection kits” as an upgrade
                        • The resurgence of the road-trip will benefit the oil change industry
                          • Financially struggling consumers might delay their next immediate oil change
                            • Impact of COVID-19 on the Oil Change Retail Industry
                              • Oil change retail is unlikely to struggle
                                  • Figure 3: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2015-25
                                • Many oil change retailers were set up for social distancing without realizing it
                                  • Online scheduling is the future of oil change retail
                                    • Key Consumer Segments
                                      • Economic hardship can temporarily push some consumers toward changing their own oil
                                        • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the oil change retail industry
                                          • Then & Now: A look at oil change retailers today vs the 2008 Recession
                                            • Figure 4: Consumer spending on new vehicles, annual, 2000-19 and Q1 2020
                                            • Figure 5: Consumer spending on used vehicles, annual, 2000-19 and Q1 2020
                                          • COVID-19: US context
                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                            • Unemployed consumers will halt oil changes
                                              • Salary cuts could spark an interest in DIY oil changes
                                                • Increased driving will be a boon to the overall industry
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Oil change retail will persist out of necessity
                                                      • Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                  • Market Factors

                                                    • As unemployment numbers grow, consumers might delay their next oil change
                                                      • Figure 7: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-May 2020
                                                    • Salary and wage cuts could spark a moderate increase in DIY auto changes
                                                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                      • As shelter-in-place mandates slow down, consumers race to get their cars road ready
                                                        • On-demand auto service might have found its time to shine amidst COVID-19
                                                          • Engine troubles cause GM to recall two vehicles from their lineup
                                                          • What to Watch

                                                            • As the US starts to reopen, consumers prepare to get their vehicles road ready
                                                              • Shelter in place creates opportunity for on-demand vehicle maintenance
                                                              • What’s Struggling

                                                                • Two GM vehicles need engine rebuild due to excessive oil burn rates
                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                  • Oil changes are the most popular vehicle maintenance performed
                                                                    • Convenience beats cost when selecting a location
                                                                      • Most consumers are getting their oil changed at the same location
                                                                        • Online scheduling stands to gain popularity in light of COVID-19
                                                                        • Vehicle Maintenance Overview

                                                                          • Oil changes are the most popular vehicle service performed
                                                                            • Figure 8: Vehicle maintenance performed in past 12 months, April 2020
                                                                          • Gen Z consumers aren’t keeping up with routine oil changes
                                                                            • Figure 9: Vehicle maintenance performed in past 12 months, by generation, April 2020
                                                                          • City and rural car owners lag behind suburbanites regarding oil changes
                                                                            • Figure 10: Oil changes performed in past 12 months, by area, April 2020
                                                                        • Oil Change Retailers

                                                                          • Dealerships are popular for oil changes, but no retailer can claim monopoly
                                                                            • Figure 11: Location for previous oil change, April 2020
                                                                            • Figure 12: Kia oil change and service specials, November 2019
                                                                          • Convenience beats cost when selecting oil change retailers
                                                                            • Figure 13: Reasons for selecting oil change retailer, April 2020
                                                                          • Trust is key for the oldest and youngest consumer groups
                                                                            • Figure 14: Trust as primary reason for selecting retailer, by generation, April 2020
                                                                          • Cleanliness not selected as a major factor when selecting a retailer
                                                                            • Figure 15: Trust as primary reason for selecting retailer, by generation, April 2020
                                                                        • Attitudes toward Oil Changes

                                                                          • Most consumers get their oil changed at the same location, but not necessarily out of loyalty
                                                                            • Figure 16: Consumers who go to the same location for oil changes, April 2020
                                                                          • Millennials are more likely to schedule oil changes online
                                                                            • Figure 17: Consumers schedule oil changes online, April 2020
                                                                          • Oil change retailers could charge more and keep consumers happy
                                                                              • Figure 18: Attitudes toward paying more for short wait times, April 2020
                                                                              • Figure 19: Consumers who go to the same location for oil changes, April 2020
                                                                            • Online reviews are important to young car owners
                                                                              • Figure 20: Attitudes toward checking online reviews of oil change retailers, by generation, April 2020
                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                            • Data sources
                                                                              • Sales data
                                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                                                    • Direct marketing creative
                                                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                        • Abbreviations

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