Description

This report provides comprehensive and current information and analysis of the packaged bread market including packaged bread market size, anticipated market forecast, relevant market segmentation, and industry trends for the packaged bread market in the US.

Current market landscape

After years of stagnation, the packaged bread category benefited strongly from a shift in consumer spending out of restaurants for breakfast and lunch during the pandemic. Packaged breads enjoyed a strong boost in sales as a result of increased eating at home among consumers. However, as the effects of the pandemic and its concomitant recession lessen, people will resume dining out and other pre-COVID behaviors. At that time, the category’s inflation-adjusted sales are expected to return to the slight declines it has seen for much of the past half decade.

Market share and key bread industry trends

  • Bread sales uptick to be short-lived
    An increase in lunches and other meals at home over the past year led to considerable sales growth for all facets of the packaged bread category. As consumers return to the workplace and schools, restaurants reopen and the economy recovers, however, the category will see sales fall back in line with its pre-COVID decline.
  • Loaf breads provide ease and comfort
    The shift in consumer spend from restaurants to retailers benefited a pair of segments the most: packaged bagels and tortillas. However, as the effects of the pandemic lessen, these are also likely to be the products that consumers again turn to restaurants for.
  • Baking at home may shape consumer bread perception
    Increased free time led a number of consumers to bake their own bread at home and share the results on social media. This phenomenon ultimately proved relatively short-lived, but it demonstrates that consumers are considerably interested in – and motivated by – freshness, flavor and texture in their bread choice.
  • Bread’s role in a healthy diet
    In the wake of the pandemic, consumers are likely to focus on health and wellness, which could benefit the bread category, particularly options that focus on protein and fiber content as key components of an overall healthy lifestyle.

Future market trends in packaged bread

Those who maintain their work-from-home habits begun during the pandemic may well demand bread brands that demonstrate just how versatile their products can be, expanding their lunch and even snacking potential. Key to any growth in the category, however, will be health, particularly as consumers should show a renewed tendency toward nutrition, which brands may well mitigate through the promise of protein and fiber content and expansion of the low carb bread industry.

Read on to discover more about the packaged bread consumer market, read our US In-Store Bakery Market Report, or take a look at our other Bakery research reports.

Quickly understand the bread industry

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the packaged bread market.
  • Consumer attitudes and behaviors related to bread.
  • Drivers behind packaged bread choice.
  • Ingredient claims of interest in the packaged bread category.

Covered in this bread industry report

Products included:Fresh loaf bread,Rolls/buns/croissants (hamburger and hot dog buns, all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants), bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, tortillas (hard/soft tortillas/taco kits, refrigerated tortillas, frozen tortillas), refrigerated/frozen bread products (frozen fresh-baked bread/ roll/biscuit, frozen bagels, refrigerated bagels/bialys, refrigerated, English muffins, refrigerated bread, refrigerated dinner/sandwich rolls/croissants).

Brands featured: Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc, Gruma, Campbell Soup Company, King’s Hawaiian Holding Co Inc, General Mills Inc, Lancaster Colony Corporation, Olé Mexican Foods Inc, Martin’s Famous Pastry Shoppe Inc, The Essential Baking Company, Ener-G Foods, Aldi’s L’Oven Fresh, Galasso’s Bakery, Brooklyn Food Group, Champion Foods, Mama Lola’s, Against the Grain, Caulipower Viva, B&G Foods, Outer Aisle Plantpower, .

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by William Roberts, Jr, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and market analysis of the bread industry to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Participation is rather steadfast which is proving to be a help and a hindrance to performance in the $21 billion packaged bread category. Sales have remained modestly positive despite the lingering popularity of low carb diets, yet the bulk of consumers are stuck in a holding pattern – neither increasing nor decreasing consumption. The challenge to the category will be to stem attrition while getting current participants to engage more frequently and diversely in the category.

William Roberts, Jr
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Definition
    • COVID-19: US context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread
      • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread, March 2021
    • Opportunities and challenges
    • Packaged bread falls short on health
      • Figure 3: Health of fresh bread versus packaged bread, August 2020
    • Younger consumers indicate a move away from breads
      • Figure 4: Bread behaviors, by age, January 2021
    • Clean label will become table stakes
    • The future of bread is crafty
      • Figure 5: Attitudes toward artisanal bread, by age, January 2021
    • Make bread the star of the meal
    • Move from recipes to meal planning
      • Figure 6: Bread behaviors, January 2021
  3. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Bread sales uptick to be short-lived
    • Loaf breads provide ease and comfort
    • Baking at home may shape consumer bread perception
    • Bread’s role in a healthy diet
  4. Market Size and Forecast

    • Difficulties persist for the overall bread category
      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread
      • Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread, March 2021
    • Lockdown
    • Re-emergence
    • Recovery
    • COVID-19: US context
    • Learnings from the last recession
      • Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2007-11
  5. Segment Performance

    • Loaf bread maintains market share lead
      • Figure 11: Sales of packaged bread, by segment, 2015-25
      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Supermarkets maintain market share lead
      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, in $ millions, at current prices, 2015-20
  6. Market Factors

    • Pandemic, unemployment keeps consumers home for meals
      • Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-December 2020
    • In-store bakeries affected by pandemic but should rebound
      • Figure 15: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the aisle over the ISB, December 2020
    • Bread prices rise
      • Figure 16: Consumer price index – Average price of bread per pound, January 2019-January 2021
    • Leverage the drivers of baking at home
      • Figure 17: Monthly social media mentions of at-home baking on Instagram, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
    • COVID-inspired wellbeing aspirations support whole grains
  7. Market Opportunities

    • Aiding the at-home baking phenomenon
      • Figure 18: Baking behaviors compared to last year, by age, October 2020
    • Reinforce value through wellness, nutrition
      • Figure 19: Health of fresh bread versus packaged bread, August 2020
    • Craft and artisanal breads could hold unique appeal
      • Figure 20: Attitudes toward artisanal bread, by age, January 2021
  8. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Heavily fragmented category shows no shifts in share
    • Bread brands turn to multiple strategies to expand appeal
  9. Market Share

    • Grupo Bimbo maintains share lead in a heavily fragmented category
    • Sales of packaged bread by company
      • Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of packaged bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
  10. Competitive Strategies

    • Bread companies boost environmental credentials
    • Keeping with keto
    • Linking with local – even if it is nationwide
    • Plant-based takes on bread
  11. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Nearly universal usage leaves bread searching for room to grow
    • Amid comforting solutions, healthy breads emerge
    • Flavor reigns among drivers, but room for clean label among parents
    • Carb-cutting still at the heart of consumption reduction
    • Bread behaviors are a little stale
    • Leverage the appeal of international cuisines
  12. Bread Consumption

    • Bread consumption nearly universal
      • Figure 22: Bread consumption, January 2021 and April 2018
    • Bread loaf dominance tied strongly to older consumers
      • Figure 23: Bread consumption, January 2021
    • More than three quarters eat three of more types
      • Figure 24: Repertoire analysis of types of bread consumed, January 2021
  13. Bread Types Consumed

    • Pandemic sees consumers turn to comforting bread types
      • Figure 25: Bread types consumed, January 2021
    • Young adults expand palates through bread varietals
      • Figure 26: Bread types consumed, by age, January 2021
    • Niche breads must make a case for premium appeal
      • Figure 27: Bread types consumed, by household income, January 2021
    • Wide variety of bread types in households with children
      • Figure 28: Bread types consumed, by parental status, January 2021
  14. Bread Consumption Changes

    • Pandemic reverses category slide
      • Figure 29: Bread consumption changes, January 2021
    • Parents, young adults increase bread consumption
      • Figure 30: Consuming more bread than a year ago, by select demographics, January 2021
    • Reinforce strengths in convenience, versatility, value to sustain growth
      • Figure 31: Reasons for increased consumption compared to last year, January 2021
    • Convenient solutions for freshly baked
      • Figure 32: Reasons for increased consumption compared to last year, by parental status, January 2021
    • Cutting carbs still at the heart of attrition
      • Figure 33: Reasons for decreased consumption compared to last year, January 2021
  15. Bread Choice Factors

    • Messaging focus should be on flavor
      • Figure 34: Bread choice factors, January 2021
    • Clean labels draw younger consumers and parents
      • Figure 35: Clean labels in bread choice, January 2021
    • Fresh focus for packaged bread
      • Figure 36: TURF Analysis – Bread choice factors, January 2020
  16. Bread Ingredient Claims

    • Grains provide breads a healthy angle
      • Figure 37: Bread ingredient claims, January 2021
    • Young consumers more likely to avoid carbs
      • Figure 38: Bread ingredient claims, by generation, January 2021
  17. Bread Behaviors

    • Shift marketing from recipes to meal planning
      • Figure 39: Bread behaviors, January 2021
    • Younger consumers indicate a move away from breads
      • Figure 40: Bread behaviors, by age, January 2021
    • Consumers aware of the category’s healthy options
      • Figure 41: Bread behaviors, by generation, January 2021
  18. Attitudes toward Bread

    • Health and flavor can refresh the category
      • Figure 42: Attitudes toward bread, January 2021
    • Appeal to parents with the story of the bread, itself
      • Figure 43: Attitudes toward ingredients in bread, by parental status, January 2021
    • International cuisines as a bread influencer
      • Figure 44: Attitudes toward bread in cuisines, by parental status, by gender, January 2021
  19. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
  20. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 48: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
      • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
  21. Appendix – Retailers

      • Figure 59: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 60: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
      • Figure 61: US supermarket sales of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 62: US sales of packaged bread through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
  22. Appendix – Companies and Brands

      • Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 64: Multi-outlet sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020

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