Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the US Prepared Cakes, Pies and Pastries consumer market including the behaviors, preferences, and habits of the consumer.

Consumers are seeking out freshness in the prepared cakes, pies and pastries category. 59% of consumers who eat packaged sweet baked goods prioritize freshness when shopping, which outpaces the importance of price, brand, and a long shelf life. To better communicate freshness, packaged sweet baked goods brands will want to incorporate BFY claims, premium ingredients, and refrigerated or frozen formats that speak to high quality.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to bakery closures and shifted mealtimes and special occasions to the home, benefiting packaged sweet baked goods that could cater to at-home breakfasts, snacks and holidays. While positive sales growth is expected to slow, moving forward, as consumers begin spending more time away from home, some change in behaviors from the pandemic, such as the increased likelihood of remote working, will open opportunities for category players long term.

Category players will be challenged to confront the increased adoption of scratch baking from 2020 as well as the revitalization of both in-store and standalone bakeries in 2021. Homemade and bakery options outshine packaged offerings in important associations, including freshness, high quality and taste. To compete, category players will need to highlight advantages in convenience, fun, and affordability. A venture into premium products that rival the quality of homemade and bakery offerings presents an opportunity to expand consumption through increased permissibility.

The resurgence of social gatherings in 2021 and beyond will be a major opportunity for the prepared cakes, pies, and pastries category. The vast majority of US adults report feeling comfortable seeing friends and family in-person again but remain cautious about gathering inside restaurants and bars, opening opportunities for at home social gatherings.

Read on to discover more about the US Prepared Cakes, Pies and Pastries consumer market, read our US COVID-19 Impact on Food and Drink: One Year Later Market Report 2021, or take a look at our other Food And Foodservice Market Research reports.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the prepared cakes, pies and pastries market.
  • Consumption rates of packaged sweet baked goods.
  • Important factors when buying prepared cakes, pies and pastries.
  • Pies market research and cakes industry trends.
  • Associations across sweet baked good formats, including homemade, in-store bakery, refrigerated from the aisle, frozen from the aisle and shelf-stable from the aisle.

Covered in this report

Brands include: Grupo Bimbo, JAB Holding Co, Enlightened, Daiya, Target’s Favorite Day, Krispy Kreme, Entenmann’s, HoHos, Ding Dongs, ScaryCakes, Twinkies, Kolhberg & Company, Sara Lee, McKee Foods, Hostess, Flowers Foods, Mondelēz International, Cafe Valley Bakery, The Cheesecake Factory, Cinnabon, Milk Bar, Elite Sweets, Ticklebelly, Aldi, Enlightened, The Coconut Collaborative, Philadelphia, Trufru, Jack Daniels Tennessee Whiskey, Taste the Difference, Nature’s Bakery, Better Bites.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Kaitlin Kamp, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The $11.3 billion prepared cakes, pies and pastries category is expected to continue growing in dollar sales in 2021 as many of the realities of 2020 persist – namely prolonged remote working and continued home-based social gatherings. The refrigerated and frozen segments of the category are expected to experience higher rates of dollar sales growth than the shelf-stable segment, as consumers prioritize freshness, even in their sweet baked goods. Moving forward, it will be important for brands to retain existing consumers with a focus on fun and flavor and to look for opportunities to embrace new audiences with premium innovation and claims that communicate higher quality.

Kaitlin Kamp, Food and Drink Analyst


Kaitlin Kamp

Food and Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • This Report looks at the following areas
    • Definition
    • Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
    • COVID-19: US context
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-26
    • Impact of COVID-19 on prepared cakes, pies and pastries
      • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on prepared cakes, pies and pastries, 2021
    • Opportunities and challenges
    • Homemade and bakery options see wider adoption than category offerings
      • Figure 3: Baked good consumption, 2021
    • Packaged offerings fall behind in important associations
      • Figure 4: Sweet baked good preparation associations, 2021
    • Target social gatherings and evening snacking
      • Figure 5: Sweet baked good occasions, 2021
    • Retain audiences with flavor, expand audiences with health
      • Figure 6: Product features to motivate trial, 2021
  3. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • 2021 category dollar sales growth slows but remains positive
    • Chilled segments have hot opportunities
    • Social gatherings are back on
    • Consumers place a priority on their health; brands have options to respond
    • Home baking and bakeries are 2021 contenders
  4. Market Size and Forecast

    • Positive dollar sales growth will continue into 2022 before becoming stagnant
    • 2021 presents at-home meal and social occasion opportunities
    • Long-term stagnation can be fought with investments in flavor and quality
      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-26
  5. Segment Performance

    • Shelf-stable offerings make up more than 90% of category dollar sales
    • Frozen and refrigerated segments are small but mighty
      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 10: Percent of total market share, 2019-21, cakes, pies and pastries, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
  6. Market Factors

    • Consumers relax social distancing amid updated CDC guidelines
    • Consumer confidence continues to improve and spending will diversify
      • Figure 11: Comfort level doing activities, 2021
    • Health aspirations can lead to sales stagnation if left ignored
      • Figure 12: Impact of COVID-19 on food and drink habits, 2021
    • Food allergies are a growing safety concern among parents
    • In-store and standalone bakery competition set to improve in 2021
      • Figure 13: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Consumers hone baking skills, but brands can take advantage of burnout
      • Figure 14: Change in baking frequency, 2021
  7. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Private label maintains over a third of market sales
    • Snacking competition heats up
    • Specialty diet brands expand the audience for prepared baked goods
    • Combat processed perceptions with improved ingredient quality
    • Target the evening snack and social occasions
    • Throwback to move forward
  8. Market Share

    • Private label brands make up more than a third of category share
    • Breakfast players see strong growth
    • Gains among indulgence players prove the power of comfort
    • “Other” brands find growth in the refrigerated and frozen segments, BFY
      • Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
    • Foodservice thrives at retail
      • Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, by leading foodservice companies, 52 weeks ending May 16, 2021
  9. Competitive Strategies

    • Brands compete for the solo snacking occasion
      • Figure 17: Single-serving sized sweet baked good product launches
    • Keto and dairy-free can expand audiences and occasions
      • Figure 18: Specialized diet-friendly sweet baked good product launches
      • Figure 19: Dairy-free packaged sweet baked good product launches
    • Target bets on lasting impact of comfort eating
      • Figure 20: Favorite Day (Target) packaged sweet baked good product launches
  10. Market Opportunities

    • Communicate ingredient quality with formats and claims
      • Figure 21: Premium packaged sweet baked good product launches
      • Figure 22: Perceptions of shelf-stable cakes, pies and pastries vs refrigerated and frozen cakes, pies and pastries, 2020
    • Channel childhood with nostalgic flavors and ingredients
      • Figure 23: Instances of dessert dishes on US menus, % change from Q1 2016-21
      • Figure 24: Sweet baked good product launches with nostalgic flavors and ingredients
    • Emphasize use during evenings and social gatherings
    • Consumers set health aspirations aside in the evenings
      • Figure 25: Philadelphia and Trü frü Instagram posts
    • Encourage enjoying and gifting sweet baked goods at social occasions
      • Figure 26: Sweet baked good product launches with social-gathering positioning
    • Get into lunchboxes with BFY attributes
      • Figure 27: Premium sweet baked good product launches
  11. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Homemade and ISB options outpace packaged sweet baked goods
    • Donuts are the popular choice
    • Freshness is more important than price and brand
    • Position refrigerated and frozen formats as the fresher packaged option
    • Flavor innovation is attention grabbing
  12. Sweet Baked Good Consumption

    • Fresh options lead in consumption
      • Figure 28: Baked good consumption, 2021
    • The majority of consumers aren’t fully exploring the category
      • Figure 29: Repertoire of baked good consumption, 2021
    • Younger consumers are key targets for refrigerated and frozen options
      • Figure 30: Baked good consumption, by age, 2021
    • Parents have wider sweet baked good repertoires
      • Figure 31: Repertoire of baked good consumption, by parental status, 2021
      • Figure 32: Baked good consumption, by parental status by gender, 2021
    • Utilize social occasions to get smaller households engaged
      • Figure 33: Baked good consumption, by household size, 2021
  13. Packaged Sweet Baked Good Formats Consumed

    • Donuts lead in popularity and are an opportunity for innovation
      • Figure 34: Packaged sweet baked good formats consumed, 2021
    • Packaged offerings serve cost-conscious consumers well
      • Figure 35: Packaged sweet baked good formats consumed, by financial situation, 2021
  14. Important Purchase Factors

    • Freshness is more important than price in sweet baked good choice
      • Figure 36: Important purchase factors, 2021
    • Shelf-stable sweet baked goods will struggle with audience expansion
      • Figure 37: Important purchase factors, by sweet baked good consumption, 2021
    • Healthy kid-focused offerings are a white space in the category
      • Figure 38: Important purchase factors, by parental status, 2021
  15. Sweet Baked Good Preparation Associations

    • The further from fresh, the worse the perceptions
    • Convenience is the category’s key advantage
    • Refrigerated and frozen formats can don a health(ier) halo
      • Figure 39: Sweet baked good preparation associations, 2021
    • Improve convenience perceptions with adults under 45
      • Figure 40: Sweet baked good preparation associations – Convenient, by age, 2021
    • Younger consumers note refrigerated and frozen products have strengths in fun, value and quality
      • Figure 41: Sweet baked good preparation associations, refrigerated and frozen formats, by age, 2021
    • Encourage men to utilize packaged offerings at special occasions
      • Figure 42: Sweet baked good preparation associations, by gender, 2021
  16. Sweet Baked Good Format Associations

    • Improve associations with snacking and portability
    • Brownie and donut brands should explore flavor innovation
    • Embrace the healthful role of muffins in the morning
    • Ample opportunities to go premium
      • Figure 43: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Sweet baked good format associations, 2021
      • Figure 44: Sweet baked good associations, 2021
    • Consider age groups when embracing nostalgia
      • Figure 45: Sweet baked good format associations – Nostalgic, by age, 2021
  17. Sweet Baked Good Occasions

    • Sweet baked goods thrive in indulgent occasions
    • Usage at group gatherings can grow
      • Figure 46: Sweet baked good occasions, 2021
    • Super snackers are less likely to choose pre-made baked goods
      • Figure 47: Sweet baked good occasions, by age, 2021
    • Encourage women to go beyond special occasions with BFY improvements
      • Figure 48: Sweet baked good occasions, by gender, 2021
    • The lunchbox is an opportunity to target families
      • Figure 49: Sweet baked good occasions, by parental status, 2021
  18. Product Features to Motivate Trial

    • Flavor is a strong attention getter, health a strong attention keeper
      • Figure 50: Product features to motivate trial, 2021
    • Young consumers will be swayed by flavor while older consumers look for BFY improvements
      • Figure 51: Product features to motivate trial, by age, 2021
    • Heavily engaged users will utilize online options
      • Figure 52: Product features to motivate trial, by repertoire of sweet baked goods eaten, 2021
  19. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
  20. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes, pies and pastries at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 54: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, by segment, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
      • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf stable cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes, pies and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen cakes, pies and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
  21. Appendix – Retail Channels

      • Figure 61: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, by channel, at current prices, 2016-21
      • Figure 62: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, by channel, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
      • Figure 63: US supermarket sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices, 2016-21
      • Figure 64: US sales of prepared cakes, pies and pastries through other retail channels, at current prices, 2016-21
  22. Appendix – Companies and Brands

      • Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable cakes, pies and pastries, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
      • Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of frozen cake, pies and pastries, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
      • Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

Market

Mintel provides a range of market information, frequently through the category level, including market size and forecasting, complete with market drivers that illustrate the forces that shape a category or market.

Consumer

Mintel’s proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.

Brand/Company

Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.

Data

Market reports provide appendices of data to support the research and insight produced. Our tables of data are easily manipulated and downloadable to support your research needs and covers factors from consumer attitudes to market forecasts.

Below is a sample report, understand what you are buying.

Click to show report

Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted. Also, our reports come in PDF, Powerpoint, Word and Excel Databook formats.

Trusted by companies. Big and small.

Bell Logo - Mintel client
Boots Logo - Mintel Client
Kelloggs Logo - Mintel client
Samsung Logo - Mintel client
Nike Logo - Mintel client
Walgreens Logo - Mintel client

Want to speak to us directly?

Contact us on via phone or fill out a form with your enquiry.

Contact Us