US Produce Market Report 2023

Overview

• What you need to know
• This Report looks at the following areas
• Definition
• Market context

Executive Summary

• Top Takeaways
• Consumer trends
• Inflation-induced purchase shuffling is throwing habits up in the air
  • Figure 1: Changes in produce purchase habits, by financial health, 2023
• Younger consumers might lag in consumption, but just need a push
  • Figure 2: Changes in produce purchase habits, by generation, 2023
• Consumers mix and match conventional and organic, branded and private label
  • Figure 3: Product type purchase, by product type purchase, 2023
• Competitive strategies
• Improving palatability can spark interest
  • Figure 4: Innovative produce releases, 2023
• Brands are smoothing barriers, enhancing strengths
  • Figure 5: Convenience-enhanced produce innovations, 2023
• Market predictions
  • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of produce, at current prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 7: Category outlook, 2023-28
• Opportunities
• Help consumers optimize purchase use
  • Figure 8: Select attitudes toward produce, 2023
• Function-forward marketing can empower long-term health goals
  • Figure 9: Select attitudes toward produce, 2023
• Inspire younger consumers
  • Figure 10: Reasons for eating more produce compared to a year ago, by generation, 2023

Market Size and Forecast

• Inflation buffers produce category from negative growth
  • Figure 11: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of produce, at current prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of produce, at current prices, 2017-27

Segment Performance

• Inflation sends segments on another wild ride
  • Figure 13: US retail sales and forecast of vegetables, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 14: US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
• “Other” channel growth suggests shifts to value retailers
  • Figure 15: Total US retail sales of produce, by channel, at current prices, 2020-22

Market Drivers

• Inflation results in some purchase habit shuffling
  • Figure 16: Changes in produce purchase habits, by financial health, 2023
• Cuts to SNAP compounding inflation’s threat to public health
• Organic can take advantage of malleable habits
  • Figure 17: Barriers to organic product purchase, 2023
• Growers, suppliers can shift to meet BFY/BFU with tech
• Regenerative agriculture can advance environmental interests through a health lens
  • Figure 18: Reasons for increased produce consumption, 2023
• Food waste innovations making headway
• • Figure 19: Select attitudes toward produce, 2023

Market Share/Key Players

• Brands can prove value through consistency, convenience
• Sales of produce by company
  • Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of produce, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
• Company/brand sales by segment
• Frozen vegetable brands can capitalize on comfort
  • Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of frozen vegetables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
  • Figure 22: Frozen vegetables social media messaging, 2022
• Longterm lead in shelf-stable private label veggies proves convenience and value are timeless
  • Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable vegetables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
  • Figure 24: Del Monte Facebook ad, 2022
• Jasper Wyman & Son takes on private label in frozen fruit
  • Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
  • Figure 26: Wyman’s fruit cups ad, 2022
• Private label edges out leading shelf-stable fruit brand
  • Figure 27: Del Monte Facebook ad, 2023
  • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of canned/jarred fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
• Fragmented dried fruit segment results in mixed bag of performances
  • Figure 29: Sunsweet Growers Facebook ad, 2023
  • Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023

Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities

• Brands tackle format barriers with innovation
• Moving avocados from tricky to RTE/RTH
  • Figure 31: Avocado-based new product introductions, 2023
• RTB (ready-to-blend)/RTE “smoothie-solutions” ease prep and elevate value
  • Figure 32: Smoothie-focused produce introductions, 2023
• Brands take BFY alternatives to the next level
• “Comfort carbs” take alternatives a step further
  • Figure 33: Vegetable-based carbohydrate substitutes, 2023
• Nuanced prep methods an easy upgrade to texture and taste
  • Figure 34: New product introductions designated for specific cooking methods, 2023
• Brands explore fresh sourcing opportunities
• Spotlights on growers add a face to the farm
  • Figure 35: Packaged produce with regional/local claims
• Sea veggies offer cross-cultural, concentrated functionality
  • Figure 36: Produce containing seaweed, 2023
• Indoor-grown species buff up produce availability
  • Figure 37: Vertically grown produce, 2023
• Retailers modernize traditional engagement with digital
• Function-forward positioning aligns with “food as medicine”
  • Figure 38: Current functional ingredient use, by generation, 2023
  • Figure 39: Function-forward produce introductions, 2023

The Produce Consumer – Fast Facts

• Consumers demonstrate various inflation-adaptive strategies
• Food waste is a major limiting factor
• Consumers are down to get creative

Produce Consumer Segmentation

• • Figure 40: Produce consumer segmentation, 2023
• Wellness-forward produce buyers
• Who they are:
• What they’re doing:
• What they’re thinking:
• Value-minded produce buyers
• Who they are:
• What they’re doing:
• What they’re thinking:
• Cautious produce buyers
• Who they are:
• What they’re doing:
• What they’re thinking:
• Adventure-inclined produce buyers
• Who they are:
• What they’re doing:
• What they’re thinking:

Fruit Formats Purchased

• Non-fresh options duel it out
  • Figure 41: Fruit formats purchased in past three months, 2023
• Young adults look past the stigmas of processed for convenience
  • Figure 42: Fruit formats purchased in past three months, by generation, 2023
• Empower parents’ convenient nutrition goals
  • Figure 43: Fruit formats purchased in past three months, by parental status and gender, 2023

Vegetable Formats Purchased

• Fresh vegetable format varieties can complement each other
  • Figure 44: Vegetable formats purchased in past three months, 2023
• Make vegetables easy for younger consumers
  • Figure 45: Vegetable formats purchased in past three months, by generation, 2023
• Tap into parental search for convenience
  • Figure 46: Vegetable formats purchased in past three months, by parental status and gender, 2023

Typical Brand and Product Purchase

• Less than three in 10 regularly buy organic produce…
  • Figure 47: Typical brand and product purchase, 2023
• …yet aren’t completely opposed
  • Figure 48: Typical brand and product purchase, by typical brand and product purchase 2023
• Private label scores with even financially healthy shoppers
  • Figure 49: Typical brand and product purchase, by financial health, 2023
• Branded organic: target urban consumers
  • Figure 50: Typical brand and product purchase, by area, 2023

Changes in Produce Purchase Habits

• Inflation obstructing usual habits, but also benefiting produce
  • Figure 51: Changes in produce purchase habits, 2023
• Ease Gen Z’s transition into produce
  • Figure 52: Changes in produce purchase habits, by generation, 2023
• Market produce-forward recipes to adventurous consumers
  • Figure 53: Changes in produce purchase habits, by consumer segmentation, 2023

Changes in Produce Consumption

• Keep the momentum going post-inflation
  • Figure 54: Changes in produce consumption, 2023
• Health + sustainability can be a powerful combo
  • Figure 55: Reasons for increased produce consumption, 2023
• Brands’ challenge is among “content” produce consumers
  • Figure 56: Reasons for not consuming more produce, 2023

Produce Associations

• Brands: keep up processed produce education
  • Figure 57: Produce associations, 2023

Produce Quality Indicators

• Convenience, ease land near the top of the quality checklist
  • Figure 58: Produce quality indicators, 2023
• Convenience + value = quality produce
  • Figure 59: TURF Analysis – Produce quality indicators, 2023
• Younger consumers value “how” more than “who”
  • Figure 60: Produce quality indicators, by generation, 2023

Attitudes toward Produce

• Food waste is top of mind
  • Figure 61: Attitudes toward produce, 2023
  • Figure 62: Misfits Market Instagram post, 2023
• Keep evolving tech from getting lost in the noise
  • Figure 63: Attitudes toward produce, by generation, 2023
• • Figure 64: Pairwise Instagram post, 2023
• Help parents take initiative to address waste
  • Figure 65: Attitudes toward produce, by parental status and gender, 2023

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

• Data sources
• Sales data
• Forecast
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations

Appendix – Consumer Segmentation Methodology

Appendix – TURF Methodology

• • Figure 66: Table – TURF Analysis – Produce value indicators, 2023

Appendix – The Market

• • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of produce, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh vegetables, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen vegetables, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable vegetables, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
• • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of caned/jarred fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27

Appendix – The Consumer

• • Figure 75: Fruit formats purchased in past three months, by fruit formats purchased in past three months, 2023
• • Figure 76: Vegetable formats purchased in past three months, by vegetable formats purchased in past three months, 2023
• • Figure 77: Produce associations, by vegetable formats purchased in past three months, 2023
• • Figure 78: Changes in produce consumption, by changes in produce purchase habits, 2023