Description

“Takeout and delivery programs and services have become integral to restaurants as they work to find ways to adapt to the changes accelerated by the pandemic: in consumer needs and preferences and in how brands approach business operations. Brands with established delivery and takeout programs and third-party partnerships benefited from more adept recoveries following the worst of the impact, reinforcing that expanding ways of meeting consumer needs on-premise or otherwise will continue to be a bigger part of the equation, even as more normalized circumstances unfold.  Despite loosening restrictions and vaccination progress, demand for off-premise dining will remain strong and will be a point of differentiation for operators.”

– Mimi Bonnett, Director – US Food and Drink

 This Report looks at the following areas:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on restaurant ordering, takeout and delivery
  • The successes and challenges of third-party delivery services and apps
  • Ordering and delivery behavior and expectations in 2021
  • Consumer interest in delivery and takeout service innovation

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Definition
    • Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on restaurant ordering, takeout and delivery
      • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on restaurant ordering, takeout and delivery, May 2021
    • Challenges and opportunities
    • Extended WFH means operators/services have to work harder for traffic
      • Figure 3: Anticipated work situations, April 2021
    • Fees keep pickup dominating as on-premise slowly returns
      • Figure 4: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery – NETS, September 2019, May 2020, March 2021
    • Operator tech-investments can keep Millennials directly engaged
      • Figure 5: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by generation, May 2020
    • Diners anticipate increased dining through a number of channels
      • Figure 6: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, March 2021
    • Gen Zs, Millennials hungry for versatility and convenience
      • Figure 7: Services and innovations that would drive use, by generation, March 2021
    • Expectations are for delivery quality, speed
      • Figure 8: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, March 2021
  3. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • FSRs bear the brunt of the pandemic
    • COVID-19 surcharge fees and caps on fees from third-party companies
  4. Market Size and Forecast

      • Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Takeout and delivery-ready LSRs point to untapped off-premise potential
      • Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
    • FSRs have ground to gain back share
      • Figure 11: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2018-20
  5. Target Audience

    • Diners more likely to increase restaurant engagement through a number of channels
      • Figure 12: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, March 2021
    • Diners under 45 are mixing up ways to order
      • Figure 13: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by generation, May 2021
  6. Market Factors

    • Lingering COVID concerns still impacting on-premise traffic
      • Figure 14: Comfort level, dining indoors, COVID Tracker, April 29, 2021- May 13, 2021
    • Food and drink spending begins to recalibrate
      • Figure 15: Sales of food at home and away from home, January 2010-April 2021
    • Less commuting = fewer on-premise occasions
      • Figure 16: Anticipated work situations, April 2021
    • Aspirational cooks will cut into dining out, delivery
      • Figure 17: Pandemic-driven changes in behavior, October 2020
    • Cutting back on foodservice spending seen as positive
      • Figure 18: Effect of COVID-19 on finances, November 2020
  7. Key Trends – What You Need to Know

    • Restaurants expand and refine pickup/delivery capacity in different ways
    • Virtual menus and ghost kitchens expand delivery market
    • Third-party Delivery Services offer new services, diversify options
  8. Third-party Delivery Brand Strategies

    • Competitive market expansion, mergers and acquisitions
    • Uber Eats launches first ever advertising listing for restaurants 
    • DoorDash offers self-delivery options, giving chains more flexibility
    • Grubhub offers tool for consumers to direct order from restaurants
    • DoorDash expands delivery of convenience store items
    • Third-party services provide platforms, and in some cases, the actual ghost kitchen
  9. Operator Competitive Strategies

    • Doubling down on drive-thrus and downsizing
    • Smart drive-thru upgrades and personalization
    • Contactless is the new black
    • Better, faster, stronger pickup powered by LSB (location-based service)
    • Refreshed digital loyalty programs are a win-win
    • Ghost and host kitchens support virtual brands and menus
  10. Market Opportunities

    • Tap into parents in need of convenience, value and experience
      • Figure 19: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, increased use, by parental status, March 2021
    • Streamline, combine digital services to target up and coming users
      • Figure 20: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by generation, March 2021
    • Develop programs with Gen Zs, Millennials in mind
      • Figure 21: Services and innovations that would drive usage, by generation, March 2021
  11. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Fast food, casual dining and fast casual most widely used
    • Pickup is most widely used service, as on-premise slowly returns
    • Interest in contactless delivery and curbside pickup
    • Fees stand in the way of increased off-premise programs
  12. Restaurant Dining, Ordering, Pickup and Delivery

    • Diners are adopting new ways of ordering
      • Figure 22: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, March 2021
    • Pick up still dominating as on-premise slowly returns
      • Figure 23: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery – NETS, September 2019, May 2020, March 2021
    • Consumers are diversifying their approach to ordering
      • Figure 24: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, September 2019, May 2020, March 2021
    • The future of foodservice is more diverse and fluid
      • Figure 25: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by generation, May 2020
    • Affluence doesn’t limit LSR patronage
      • Figure 26: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by household income, May 2020
    • Online family-friendly offers will resonate with parents
      • Figure 27: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by parental status, May 2020
  13. Restaurant Ordering by Segment

    • More than three-quarters patronize QSRs
      • Figure 28: Restaurants used in the past three months, March 2021
    • Millennials are important, but don’t leave Gens X and Z behind
      • Figure 29: Type of restaurant used, by generation, March 2021
    • Convenience + versatility appeal to parents, not necessarily at the same time
      • Figure 30: Type of restaurant used, parental status, March 2021
  14. Ordering Frequency and Method

      • Figure 31: Frequency of use, March 2021
    • Heavy users profile
      • Figure 32: Heavy users, by key demographics, March 2021
  15. On-premise Dining Barriers and Returns

    • About half plan to return in a few months
      • Figure 33: How soon plan to return to dining in restaurants, March 2021
    • Millennials are ready to dine on-premise
      • Figure 34: How soon plan to return to dining in restaurants, by generation, March 2021
    • Health, not finances, at the root of on-premise avoidance
      • Figure 35: Reasons for not dining in a restaurant, March 2021
    • Gen Z and Millennials less likely to prefer cooking at home
      • Figure 36: Reasons for not dining in a restaurant, by generation, March 2021
    • Parents need mealtime support, stat
      • Figure 37: Reasons for not dining in a restaurant, by parental status, March 2021
  16. Anticipated Post-pandemic Dining-out Behaviors

    • Many anticipate returning to on-premise dining post-pandemic
      • Figure 38: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, March 2021
    • Increased use of online apps likely to continue beyond the pandemic
      • Figure 39: Expected behavior after COVID-19, online ordering, March 2021
    • Millennials plan use of wide range of options post-pandemic
      • Figure 40: Expected increase in behavior after COVID-19, by generation, March 2021
    • More affluent also likely to sustain usage of pickup and delivery
      • Figure 41: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, by household income, March 2021
    • Parents plan high use of pickup and delivery post-pandemic
      • Figure 42: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, by parental status, March 2021
  17. Ordering Method by Occasion and Segment

    • Diners’ Preferred Ordering Method Varies Depending on the Dining Occasion
      • Figure 43: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Ordering method interest by dining occasion, March 2021
      • Figure 44: Ordering method interest, by dining occasion, March 2021
  18. Interest in Delivery/Takeout Innovations

    • Consumers want basic limited contact going forward
      • Figure 45: Services and innovations that would drive use, March 2021
    • Contactless is the new convenience
      • Figure 46: TURF analysis – Desired off-premise improvements, March 2021
      • Figure 47: Table – TURF analysis – Desired off-premise improvements, March 2021
    • Gen Zs, Millennials want more ways to engage off-premise
      • Figure 48: Services and innovations that would drive usage, by generation, March 2021
  19. Delivery and Takeout Attitudes and Behaviors

    • Fees stand in the way of greater delivery use
      • Figure 49: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, March 2021
    • Men less sensitive to fees
      • Figure 50: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by gender, March 2021
    • Emerging operational trends are driven by Millennials
      • Figure 51: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by generation, March 2021
  20. Delivery Services Attitudes

    • Expectations are for delivery quality, speed
      • Figure 52: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, March 2021
    • Convenient options can appeal to women through a better experience
      • Figure 53: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by gender, March 2021
    • Gen Z, Millennials seek speed, convenience in pickup/delivery
      • Figure 54: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by generation, March 2021
  21. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Sales data
    • Forecast methodology
    • Consumer survey data
    • Direct marketing creative
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
    • Terms
    • Methodology – correspondence analysis
    • TURF Methodology

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