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Description

Description

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, “holiday shopping” refers to expected consumer expenditures on holiday-specific items such as gifts, decorations, seasonal candy and other food, greeting cards, and other expenditures.The report’s focus is on Winter holidays (eg Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa) as these represent the bulk of total holiday expenditures

"US retail sales in November and December are predicted to reach $787 billion in 2019, up nearly $20 billion, or 2.3% over 2018. Macroeconomic factors at the time of writing paint a positive picture for the coming months, as does the fact that 84% of shoppers say they intend to shop this year (up two percentage points versus last year). Still, retail sales growth year over year is expected to show deceleration as uncertainty around a recession, tariffs and other unknowns abound. Two thirds of shoppers want to get their shopping done as fast as possible, but still, more than six in 10 want the flexibility to express their creativity while gifting, entertaining and decorating during the holidays. This year, they’ll have less time to do this as the season is shortened by almost a week. Ecommerce and mobile commerce will reach new heights, due in part to the condensed timeframe, and promotions will likely be more attractive than they ever have been before."

– Diana Smith, Associate Director - Retail & Apparel

This report examines the following issues:

  • 2018 review and 2019 expectations
  • Attitudes toward holiday shopping
  • Shopping timeframe
  • Retailer preferences and drivers
  • Planning and shopping behavior

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Overview
          • 2018 review and 2019 expectations
            • What you want to know
              • What we see
                • Attitudes toward holiday shopping
                  • What you want to know
                    • What we see
                      • Shopping timeframe
                        • What you want to know
                          • What we see
                            • Retailer preferences and drivers
                              • What you want to know
                                • What we see
                                  • Planning and shopping behavior
                                    • What you want to know
                                      • What we see
                                        • What it means
                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                          • Winter holiday sales grew in 2018, but were stifled by underperformance in December
                                            • Sales set to increase, but at a slower pace
                                              • Macroeconomic factors bode well for upcoming season, but impact of tariffs yet to be seen
                                                • Condensed shopping timeframe
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Historical November/December sales
                                                      • Holiday season expected to trump 2018 by nearly $20 billion
                                                        • Figure 1: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                        • Figure 2: Total US retail sales* in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2009-19
                                                      • 2019 year-to-date retail sales
                                                        • Volatile sales pattern thus far leads to uncertainty for upcoming holidays
                                                          • Figure 3: Total 2019 monthly US retail sales, May 2019
                                                        • Consumer spending during 2018 holidays expected to exceed $850; three out of four dollars spent on gifts
                                                          • Figure 4: Anticipated average expenditures for winter holidays, in current dollars, 2013-18
                                                      • Market Perspective

                                                        • Market Factors

                                                          • Consumers are feeling confident about their finances
                                                            • Figure 5: Current financial situation, October 2018
                                                            • Figure 6: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-April 2019
                                                          • Macroeconomic factors reflect signs of slow growth
                                                            • Figure 7: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, 2007-Q1 2019
                                                            • Figure 8: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-March 2019
                                                            • Figure 9: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2007-17
                                                            • Figure 10: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, January 2017-March 2019
                                                            • Figure 11: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-April 2019
                                                          • Impact of tariffs could lead to price increases
                                                            • Presence of children (or lack thereof) could influence spending
                                                              • Figure 12: Households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
                                                            • Less time to shop this year
                                                              • Amazon offers free one-day delivery to Prime members
                                                              • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Apparel and ecommerce big winners
                                                                  • Event-based promotions, email and pop-ups shops among tactics used to attract shoppers’ attention
                                                                    • Department stores still lagged behind
                                                                      • Elevated convenience will up the competitive ante
                                                                        • Tech stays hot
                                                                        • Who Stood Out in 2018?

                                                                          • No surprise – Amazon won again!
                                                                            • Besides Amazon, ecommerce strong across the board
                                                                              • A resurgence for apparel
                                                                                  • Figure 13: REI, Black Friday TV ad: OptOutside, One Tree Planted, November 2018
                                                                                • Pop-up shops lit up the holiday shopping experience
                                                                                  • Figure 14: The Market @ Macy’s holiday pop-up, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 15: Wayfair holiday pop-up, November 2018
                                                                                • Even non-retailers get in on Black Friday hype
                                                                                  • Figure 16: New York Public Library Black Friday ad, New York Times, November 2018
                                                                                • Mentions of savings, deals and free shipping drove email engagement
                                                                                  • Figure 17: Amazon email, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 18: Bath & Body Works’ candle day email, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Bath & Body Works’ candle day Instagram post, December 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Kohl’s email, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Target email, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Walmart email, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Macy’s email, November 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 24: ULTA beauty email, November 2018
                                                                              • Who Struggled?

                                                                                • Department stores continued to face challenges
                                                                                  • Site issues plagued some retailers
                                                                                    • Figure 25: Consumer tweet on J. Crew’s Twitter page, November 2018
                                                                                • What’s Next?

                                                                                  • Digital layaway programs likely to see gains
                                                                                    • The year of click-and-collect
                                                                                      • Figure 26: Engagement or interest in option to purchase online and pick up in-store, February 2019
                                                                                    • Familiar trends drive holiday wish lists
                                                                                      • Gifting made easier through registries, tech, personal service
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Nordstrom customer acquisition email, December 2018
                                                                                        • Figure 28: GiftNow acquisition emails, Kenneth Cole – February 2019, Saks Fifth Avenue – December 2018
                                                                                      • More active promotion of unconventional gifting occasions
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Aveda Singles’ Day customer acquisition email, November 2018
                                                                                        • Figure 30: BCBGMAXAZRIA Friendsgiving customer acquisition email, November 2018
                                                                                      • Toys“R”Us re-emerges
                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                        • Not all shoppers are the same
                                                                                          • It’s not all about price
                                                                                            • Experiential gifts on the rise
                                                                                              • 2019 set to be another record year for online and mobile sales
                                                                                                • Digital tools play a key role in helping shoppers get organized
                                                                                                  • Every day counts this year as the holiday season is condensed
                                                                                                  • Who’s Shopping?

                                                                                                    • Dimensionalizing shoppers enables precision targeting
                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Winter holiday shopper segments, April 2019
                                                                                                      • Experiential Shoppers
                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                          • Opportunities
                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Profile of experiential shoppers, April 2019
                                                                                                          • Budget Shoppers
                                                                                                            • Characteristics
                                                                                                              • Opportunities
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Profile of budget shoppers, April 2019
                                                                                                              • Disengaged Shoppers
                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                  • Opportunities
                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Profile of disengaged shoppers, April 2019
                                                                                                                  • Efficient Shoppers
                                                                                                                    • Characteristics
                                                                                                                      • Opportunities
                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Profile of efficient shoppers, April 2019
                                                                                                                    • Consumers’ Affiliations with the Winter Holiday Season

                                                                                                                      • Consumers associate the holidays with family and deals
                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                        • Parents are optimistic about the time period
                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, by parental status, April 2019
                                                                                                                        • Winter holiday shopping is a necessity for most, but not viewed the same by all
                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping - index, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                      • Items Purchased in 2018

                                                                                                                        • Clothing, gift cards, toys among top items in 2018
                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Holiday purchases, April 2019
                                                                                                                        • Parents are key buyers, but don’t forget the grandparents
                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Holiday purchases, by parental status by gender, April 2019
                                                                                                                        • More than four in 10 shoppers buy 4-6 items
                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Repertoire of Holiday purchases, April 2019
                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, by repertoire of Holiday purchases, April 2019
                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Holiday purchases, by cluster of Attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                      • How and Where Consumers Plan to Shop in 2019

                                                                                                                        • In-store preferred channel, but online not far behind
                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Preferred shopping method, April 2019
                                                                                                                          • Channel consistency matters
                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Attitudes regarding pricing strategies by channel, February 2019
                                                                                                                            • Mass merchandisers, Amazon, department stores top destinations
                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Planned store types to shop in 2019, April 2019
                                                                                                                              • Value-oriented stores remain important to consumers of all income levels
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Plans to shop at mass merchandisers, discount stores and dollar stores in 2019 – Any shopping (net), by household income, April 2019
                                                                                                                              • Shopping Timeframe

                                                                                                                                  • Although most sales occur in November and December, holiday shopping extends outside that timeframe too
                                                                                                                                    • Power period still dominates
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Shopping timeframe, April 2019
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Significance of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, by age, April 2019
                                                                                                                                    • Mid-late December becomes increasingly important
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Shopping attitudes, April 2019
                                                                                                                                    • Not all men wait until the last minute
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Shopping timeframe, by gender and age, April 2019
                                                                                                                                    • Six fewer days to shop
                                                                                                                                      • Thinking outside the holiday time period
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Shopping outside the winter holiday time period, by household income, April 2019
                                                                                                                                    • Research and Planning Process

                                                                                                                                      • Sources of influence
                                                                                                                                        • Word of mouth still holds the most weight
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Influencers, April 2019
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Influencers, by age and income, April 2019
                                                                                                                                        • Planning resources
                                                                                                                                          • Online shopping and wish lists play a key role in holiday planning
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Use of wish lists and other online tools, April 2019
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Use of wish lists and other online tools, by gender and age, April 2019
                                                                                                                                          • Money-related behaviors
                                                                                                                                            • Shoppers will open wallets for the perfect gift
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Money-related shopping behaviors, April 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Money-related shopping behaviors, by gender and age and household income, April 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Money-related shopping behaviors, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                                            • Retailer selection
                                                                                                                                              • Retailers can win shoppers through cause-related efforts and transparency
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Factors that drive retailer choice, April 2019
                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes toward Holiday Shopping

                                                                                                                                              • ‘Tis the season for enjoyment
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Attitudes toward experiential aspects of shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Attitudes toward types of gifts, by generation and race and Hispanic origin, April 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Shoppers are looking for creative ideas
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Attitudes toward creativity, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Attitudes toward creativity, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Saving time > saving money
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Attitudes toward shopping process, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Attitudes toward time versus money involved in shopping process, by gender and age, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Attitudes toward shopping process, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                                              • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                • Sales data
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                                                                    • Repertoire analysis methodology
                                                                                                                                                      • Direct marketing creative
                                                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                            • Terms
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures, in current dollars, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Top 10 US holiday season shopping days, ranked by retail ecommerce sales, 2018
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Retailers’ average email read rates, holiday* versus non-holiday** season, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Read rates (%) comparison of subject line keywords, January 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Use of wish lists and other online tools, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Top 10 dates for traffic and conversions during holidays - rank, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: Influencers, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019

                                                                                                                                                            About the report

                                                                                                                                                            This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                              What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                            • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                              Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                            • The Market

                                                                                                                                                              Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                            • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                              New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                            • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                              Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                            • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                              What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                            Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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