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Yogurt - China - August 2019

“Generally speaking, consumers in China regard yogurt more as a functional food. Although ambient yogurt is growing faster, it faces the dilemma of finding a suitable positioning, as consumers will realise its limitations in terms of functionality; as for chilled yogurt, to distinguish from ambient yogurt, a high added-value image needs to be forged through specific benefits.”
- Crystal A, Research Analyst, Food and Drink

This report will look at hte following areas:

  • Re-consider the positioning of ambient yogurt
  • Get inspiration from foodservice brands to play on visual innovation
  • Add value to chilled yogurt with goal-driven positioning

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this report
        • Excluded
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • The future market will mainly rely on product upgrade
                • Figure 1: Retail market value and volume of yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
                • Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by value, China, 2014-24
                • Figure 3: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by volume, China, 2014-24
              • Ambient yogurt enjoys higher growth rate and this status quo will not be changed in the following years
                • Figure 4: Retail value of each segment within yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
                • Figure 5: Best- and worst-case forecast for ambient yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
                • Figure 6: Best- and worst-case forecast for chilled yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
              • Companies and brands
                • Leading brands are grabbing more market share
                  • Regional brands are facing fiercer competition in the chilled segment battlefield
                    • Figure 7: Key players’ share of yogurt market, China, 2017 vs 2018
                  • Innovation trend: make it clean but also healthy
                    • The consumer
                      • Ambient yogurt enjoys more frequent users, especially among males
                        • Figure 8: Consumption frequency of yogurt, May 2019
                      • Understanding regarding ambient yogurt reveals confusion
                        • Figure 9: Awareness of live bacteria, May 2019
                      • Different purposes under different consumption occasions
                        • Figure 10: Consumption purposes, May 2019
                      • Brand is still the most influential factor for choosing yogurt products
                        • Figure 11: Purchase factors, May 2019
                      • Most consumers want a balance between health and indulgence
                        • Figure 12: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
                        • Figure 13: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
                      • What we think
                      • Issues and Insights

                        • Re-consider the positioning of ambient yogurt
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                              • Figure 14: Product examples of all natural ambient yogurt, Ecuador and Brazil, 2018
                              • Figure 15: New PET bottle packaging for Ambrosial and Just Yogurt, China, 2019
                            • Get inspiration from foodservice brands to play on visual innovation
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • Figure 16: LELECHA’s thick yogurt series, which put mashed fruits into layers to create a rich flavour and texture, China, 2019
                                  • Figure 17: Product examples of Heytea’s fruits yogurt cup, which gives visual impact through added fresh ingredients, China, 2019
                                • Add value to chilled yogurt with goal-driven positioning
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Figure 18: Dannon Light & Fit Original Greek’s vanilla non-fat yogurt highlights high protein and high calcium, USA, 2019
                                      • Figure 19: Yakult Beauty+ Drinking Yogurt for Skin, South Korea, 2019
                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                    • The future market will rely more on price increases
                                      • Ambient yogurt shows more resilience than chilled yogurt
                                        • E-commerce and social media are changing what consumers want to buy
                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                          • A market driven by both price and volume rises
                                            • Figure 20: Retail market value and volume of yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
                                          • Future growth will mainly rely on product upgrading
                                            • Figure 21: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by value, China, 2014-24
                                            • Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecast for yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), by volume, China, 2014-24
                                        • Market Drivers

                                          • Consumers’ interest in gut health provides opportunities for yogurt
                                            • E-commerce and social media are changing what consumers want to buy
                                              • Figure 23: Posts of yogurt evaluation and related food knowledge shared by consumers on Xiaohongshu, China, 2019
                                              • Figure 24: LePur’s product introductions highlighting the quality of ingredients, China
                                            • Government policies may raise consumers’ confidence for domestic dairy products
                                            • Market Segmentation

                                              • Ambient yogurt still enjoys higher growth rate than chilled one
                                                • Figure 25: Retail value of each segment within yogurt (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2014-19
                                                • Figure 26: Change in storage type of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
                                                • Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast for ambient yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
                                              • Chilled yogurt needs to wait a long time for momentum
                                                • Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecast for chilled yogurt, by value, China, 2014-24
                                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                              • Regional brands face fiercer competition in the chilled segment
                                                • Growth strategy of Yili and Mengniu start to diverge
                                                  • Innovation trend: make it clean but also healthy
                                                  • Market Share

                                                    • The CR2 for yogurt market is over 50%
                                                      • Figure 29: Key players’ share of yogurt market, China, 2017 vs 2018
                                                    • Competition within the chilled segment is intensifying
                                                    • Competitive Strategies

                                                      • National brands
                                                        • Intensify omni-channel presence, especially in new retail channels
                                                          • Actively promote the chilled yogurt business
                                                            • Invest in marketing to maintain the dynamics of star products
                                                              • Figure 30: Mengniu Just Yogurt’s sponsorship of popular reality show
                                                            • Regional brands
                                                              • Terun: forging “internet famous” (wanghong) products through niche flavours
                                                                • Figure 31: Terun’s yogurt products with interesting flavours, highlighting various consumption methods, China, 2018
                                                              • Classy Kiss: launch the first “body shape management” yogurt to target urban elites
                                                                • Figure 32: Classy Kiss YO KEEP’s Tencent Video commercial highlighting “self-discipline”, China, 2019
                                                            • Who’s Innovating?

                                                              • The big picture overview
                                                                • Flavours that are worth watching
                                                                  • Figure 33: Noteworthy flavours of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
                                                                • Though “minus” claims are more popular, “plus” claims show an up-trend
                                                                  • Figure 34: Change in “minus” and “plus” claims of new launches in the yogurt category (include lactobacillus drinks), China, 2016-19 (to July)
                                                                • Innovation highlights
                                                                  • Make it clean but also healthy
                                                                    • Figure 35: Yoplait’s new yogurt brand YQ, highlights 17g protein and 1g sugar on pack, US, 2018
                                                                    • Figure 36: Yuanqisenlin’s Hokkaido 3.1 highlights 3.1 times protein, China, 2019
                                                                  • Functional and fortified yogurts are booming: beyond protein
                                                                    • Figure 37: Product example of Arla’s Protein, aiming at consumers with fitness habits, Norway, 2019
                                                                    • Figure 38: Product example of “high fibre” and “high protein” yogurt, Israel, 2019
                                                                  • The rise of two types of protein yogurt
                                                                    • Figure 39: Classy Kiss and LePur’s double protein yogurt products, China, 2019
                                                                  • Development towards cross-over drinks, snacks, desserts and meal replacements
                                                                    • Figure 40: Danone’s Oikos Yogurt highlights the combination of the creaminess of yogurt and the crunch of nuts, Spain, 2018
                                                                    • Figure 41: Bright’s Momchilovtsi-flavoured ice cream highlights added yogurt, China, 2019
                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                  • Ambient yogurt enjoys more frequent users, especially among males
                                                                    • Different purposes under different consumption occasions
                                                                      • Brand is still the most influential factor for choosing yogurt products
                                                                      • Consumption Frequency

                                                                        • Ambient yogurt is more for daily consumption, especially for males
                                                                          • Figure 42: Consumption frequency of yogurt, May 2019
                                                                          • Figure 43: Consumption frequency of ambient yogurt – more than once a week, by gender and age, May 2019
                                                                        • Chilled spoonable yogurt appeals to high earners
                                                                          • Figure 44: Consumption frequency of chilled spoonable yogurt – selected frequency, by monthly personal income, May 2019
                                                                      • Awareness of Live Bacteria

                                                                        • Chilled drinking yogurt positively correlates to live bacteria
                                                                          • Figure 45: Awareness of live bacteria, May 2019
                                                                          • Figure 46: Awareness of live bacteria – chilled drinking yogurt, by education degree, May 2019
                                                                        • Understanding regarding ambient yogurt reveals confusion
                                                                          • Figure 47: Awareness of live bacteria – ambient yogurt, by consumption frequency of ambient yogurt, May 2019
                                                                      • Consumption Occasions

                                                                        • Males are consuming during breakfast, while females are consuming between meals
                                                                          • Figure 48: Consumption occasions, May 2019
                                                                          • Figure 49: Consumption occasions – selected occasions, by gender and age, May 2019
                                                                        • Ambient for meals while chilled for non-meal occasions
                                                                          • Figure 50: Consumption occasions – during breakfast, by consumption frequency of ambient yogurt, May 2019
                                                                          • Figure 51: Consumption occasions – during dinner, by consumption frequency of chilled spoonable yogurt, May 2019
                                                                      • Consumption Purpose

                                                                        • Though more for functional purposes, casual purposes are key to appeal to females
                                                                          • Figure 52: Consumption purposes, May 2019
                                                                        • Create yogurt-based snacks/desserts for young consumers
                                                                          • Figure 53: Consumption purposes – selected purposes, by age, May 2019
                                                                        • Different needs under different occasions…
                                                                          • Figure 54: Consumption occasions, by consumption purposes, May 2019
                                                                        • …thus different positionings for ambient and chilled yogurt
                                                                        • Purchase Factors

                                                                          • Brand is still the most influential factor
                                                                            • Figure 55: Purchase factors, May 2019
                                                                          • Post-90s care more about flavour, while older consumers emphasise functional features
                                                                            • Figure 56: Purchase factors – selected features as the first purchase consideration, by generation, May 2019
                                                                          • Lure high earners with clean-label yogurt offerings
                                                                            • Figure 57: Purchase factors – selected features as the first purchase consideration, by monthly personal income, May 2019
                                                                        • Ideal Yogurt

                                                                          • Most consumers want a balance between health and indulgence
                                                                            • Figure 58: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
                                                                            • Figure 59: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
                                                                          • Males are more into long shelf-life yogurt products
                                                                            • Figure 60: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
                                                                          • Healthy ingredients are welcomed across all ages
                                                                            • Figure 61: Ideal yogurt, May 2019
                                                                        • Meet the Mintropolitans

                                                                          • Consume all types of yogurt more frequently
                                                                            • Figure 62: Consumption frequency – more than once a week, by consumer classification, May 2019
                                                                            • Figure 63: Consumption occasions, by consumer classification, May 2019
                                                                          • Mintropolitans do not have a better understanding of live bacteria
                                                                            • Figure 64: Awareness of live bacteria – I think yogurt I consumed contains live bacteria, by consumer classification, May 2019
                                                                          • More likely to consume yogurt for functional purposes
                                                                            • Figure 65: Consumption purposes – selected purposes, by consumer classification, May 2019
                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                            • Figure 66: Total market value of yogurt, China, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 67: Total market volume of yogurt, China, 2014-24
                                                                        • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                            • Figure 68: Total market value of ambient yogurt, China, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 69: Total market value of chilled yogurt, China, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 70: Total market value of lactobacillus drinks, China, 2014-24
                                                                        • Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations

                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                              • Abbreviations

                                                                              Yogurt - China - August 2019

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